​​Resale Report : 12.26.16 “THREE STRIPE REIGN”

 

Intro

Adidas easily had the most intriguing releases for the week ending Christmas Eve/ Boxing Day.

At the high end, Ronnie Fieg’s Kith Aspen Collection featured two sneakers: a unique colorway and silhouette – the UB Mid –  plus a “they’ll-buy-it-because-I-made-it” Trail Response drop.

Other than that, it was a restock  of two NMD R1 Tricolors (plus one) , and the XR1 ‘Duck Camo’ pack for the Three Stripes.

Jordan Brand’s week was disappointing , featuring a restock of the $400 ‘Pinnacle’ Suede 11, a $250 return for the Midnight Navy retro 16, two ‘sitter’ GRs, and a more-or- less botched release of an OG Air Jordan 1  making its first retro return ever.

Nike essentially brought back the Grinch colorway from the 2010 Kobe 6 via the Kobe 11 Elite Low, as well as the MF Doom concept via the ‘Black Box’ SB Dunk High, plus two Kyrie 3s,  one being a surprise Christmas Day release.

Elsewhere, Reebok finally dropped a home run Reebok Question in collaboration with Bape after numerous duds, as well as another Instapump Fury.

Lastly, Puma dropped another collaborative colorway of the Clyde,  and UA had yet more curry 3s on deck.

Adidas

On Thursday,  adidas  brought back the “Duck Camo Pack” XR1,  five colorways of what might often seem to be the least popular NMD style.

Hence, the restock came and went with a shrug from buyers, with four of the five colorways doing little in the aftermarket.

There was, however,  one exception to the above statement : the  Olive  Camo colorway.

In the wake of the Bape x NMD craze, FOMO– motivated buyers are turning to the most Bape-NMD-like shoe  to satisfy their  Jonesing, and sales volume and prices at resale  – while still lower than normal NMDs – reflect that fact.  the Olive Camo XR1s can be added to the growing list of NMD colorways to remember as the silo enters its second full year in existence.


Kith Aspen Collection

Adidas followed up the XR1 quintet the next day with the ultra-limited, highly- anticipated  Ultra Boost collaboration with Ronnie Fieg’s Kith brand.

A two-pair pack featuring the Fieg-designed Ultra Boost Mid Mulitcolor, plus an “expand your mind” release of the more obscure Response Trail Boost, the release coincided  with the opening of the Kith ‘pop up’ shop in Aspen, Colorado.

You already know what happened: the Fieg Ultra Boost – a raffle-based release in- store; midnight drop online – vanished instantly and was worth roughly triple its $220 retail price over the holiday weekend. That number has dipped steadily over the ensuing week to a value now just over twice the box price, where it has since leveled off.

As for Response Trail, it never quite reached double-up level over its $160 price release, and is flipping for roughly $100 over box. Not bad for a shoe few knew they needed until now.

Tricolors

Adidas seems to be greatly enjoying the success of its Tricolor series NMD R1 PKs, so much so that it saw fit to restock the Gray/White  and Black duo on Boxing Day, December 26th,  along with the debut of  a women’s exclusive Pink/Salmon colorway .

Women’s Salmon colorway aside, the Core White and Black Tricolors are two instantly-  iconic NMD colorways certain to have staying power for the silhouette in the  future as adidas likely brings to concept to a wider variety of colorways. The numerous restocks of the OG Tricolors – a necessity for adidas, given its current, ‘always limited’ marketing strategy – have kept resale prices reasonable, while also ensuring that the style maintains its popularity among buyers, as evidenced in StockX’s latest most popular guide.

Ironically enough, the women’s NMD was actually the most profitable-per-pair   for the weekend,  with sales hitting a healthy $100+ over retail, albeit in lower volume than the two ‘classic’ colors.

 One should look for far more variations of the Tricolor NMD to debut in 2017, with fingers crossed that the Three Stripes wont turn the style into another ZX  Flux Prism.


Jordan Brand

Jordan Brand absolutely flubbed what was supposed to be its most important release  of the Christmas weekend: the Storm Blue OG retro 1s.

Before it did that, however , The Jumpman kicked things off for the week on Thursday , the  22nd, with the  Midnight Navy 16s, a limited drop at a premium, $250 price.

The shoe presumably sold out, then fetched all of $150 over retail before being essentially forgotten about. Yay.

Friday, the 23rd was the big day for JB’s weekend drops, featuring the re-release of the  $400 Pinnacle Suede 11s, and the aforementioned headliner, the Storm Blue  1s. Jordan Brand also saw fit to surprise-restock the NYC Retro OG 1s, as well as the Chicago XX3s.

The NYC 1 virtually sold out in a few days via SNKRS, while the XX3-  a nice-lookin shoe for all-red-evrything lovers – is surprisingly sitting at its $225 price point. How bizarre.

The Suede 11s, however,  are quietly reselling for about $150-$200 over retail.

I think it can be safely said that Pinnacle Series releases are being treated by most Jordan buyers as a category unto themselves vis-a-vis normal retros. As such, they follow a predictable pattern: limited drop, rapid sell-through, and then a vanishing into the ether of the aftermarket at either incredible ,or less-than-expected prices…..


a Rant…….

…..because none of them have to date been grails.

JB could probably get away with releasing the Bred 1s for $300 at retail as a GR and it would sell through over time, because people would want the shoe. Whether or not there’d be any room for a profitable aftermarket is debatable, but the shoe would sell at that price.

If Jordan wanted to grab more profits for itself on the backs of a Bred or Chicago 1 with  a premium price tag,  it could  do so. nobody would seriously complain because that price is what buyers are willing to pay anyway for those styles, if necessary.

Jordan Brand does not do this, though.

Instead, Jordan offers resellers the chance to make a killing via backdoored pairs of  the OG 1 by releasing it in semi-limited numbers (with predictable restocks penciled-in for future dates) for at least $30 less ($160 ) than the typical retro ($190+), in essence feeding into the antics of would-be quick flippers,  reducing the positive perception of the shoe overall.

Storm Blue

As I stated before,  the OG  1 is sacred in  Jordan Brand lore, so  the brand goes out of its way  to ensure every drop is at least semi-limited, and, at most, damned near impossible to get.

How then Jordan saw fit to release a shoe making its first return to stores in 30 years a general release is truly beyond comprehension.

But that’s precisely what it did, so the Storm Blue is sitting in a FSR (full size run)  more than one week after its release many sizes (and has now hit discount).

That is that for the heat. As for the GR  drops, the XXX1 can be found here, and the Teal 3s presumably sold out. are available here at 50% off retail


Nike

Nike reserved its releases for the actual Holiday weekend, dropping a kobe 11 Elite, Grinch-esque colorway it called the ‘Christmas‘ on the eve of its namesake,  then releasing a  Kyrie 3 and SB  Dunk the day after Christmas (with a surpirse Christmas Day drop sandwiched in between).

The Kobe 11 ‘Christmas‘ was limited and  sold out at its $220-plus- tax box price. Since then , it has commenced its life as a shoe people want, but don’t really want to pay for (as usual).

Kyrie 3 Samurai 

People should have really known Nike would have something on tap for Christmas Day , some sort of random restock or re-release to stoke the fires of desire as a marathon day of NBA action ensued.

Indeed it did: Nike had the Mystery Kyrie 3 Samurai in the stocking,  plus a restock of the  Sauce KD 9 on offer for December 25th.

Both sold out rapidly, and the Kyries have somewhat surprisingly been well-received by buyers in the aftermarket, who shelled out more than double the $120 box price before prices settled down to the standard $70-$80 markup, with prices at around $200.

The sauce  KDs have resold for around $200 as well,  but with a  $30 higher retail, was  less profitable.

The holiday weekend’s action could suggest a promising season for the Kyrie  3 if buyers continue to support the silhouette  , something that did not happen with its sophomore effort over the past year.

The sales of the limited Samurai colorway was perhaps expected, but the surprising SNKRS sell-through of the GR Black Ice Kyrie 3 that dropped the following day is proof that perhaps Nike Basketball’s most relevant , most sensibly -priced silhouette is worthy of buyer support. Sure, the shoe is still available via spots like Finish Line and Foot Locker, but Kyrie’s third signature shoe is one of a dwindling (or maybe growing)  few from the Swoosh to  keep a close eye on as hoops season enters its ‘money season’.

The Dunk

On the day after Christmas , Nike dropped the Black Box SB Dunk, the  fourth and  last of the  Box Series Dunk releases for the 2016 calendar year.

In  many ways , the Black Box was among the most highly -anticipated SBs of the year, given its obvious resemblance to the MF Doom Dunk from the 2007 collection ( widely considered an SB grail ),  a fitting addition to what is largely seen as a fresh initiative from Nike SB, who is in need of a spark.

The Box Series dunks have mostly been  a success, the semi -limited drops of the OrangeGray, and Pink boxes all selling through relatively quickly – particularly the Orange and Pink pairs.

It stood to reason, then ,that the Black  Box – arguably the strongest (or second- strongest) colorway of them all – would follow suit.

The  retail price suggested as much.

 The fourth Box Series Dunk also featured the highest price – $130 – as Nike steadily (sneakily?) raised the MSRP  by $10 for each subeequent release: $100 (Orange), $110 (Gray), $120(Pink); $130(Black).

The Swoosh was able to get away with the drop -by -drop , incremental increases in price,  but the  $130 for the Black Box was right at the upper limits of what most SB buyers would easily cough up for a pair.

 It was a risky move , since by applying the ” $70 rule” , any shoe at that MSRP needs to have a ‘true value’ of $200 or so to be attractive to buyers. Few recently-released SBs are valued so highly by dunk buyers nowadays. SB Buyers nowadays are mostly chasing hard-to-obtain grails at that price point and up.

Of course,  if the Black Box SB was even semi -limited – as seemed logical for it to be – Nike  would’ve gotten away with the high retail price, with a rapid sell -through leading into a strongly supported resale market with prices for pairs in the aftermarket around  $200-$225. The retail price hike would be justified;  future restocks would be welcomed by those who missed out. The magic and charm would still enchant the denizens of SB Dunk sneakerdom.

I checked the presales market on ebay to verify whether or not the Black Boxes were limited. Pairs of upcoming drops are always floating around ebay early for virtually any hot release, the price of pairs there being a solid indication of how limited or not a shoe is going to be come release day.

There were signs of trouble with the Black Box, although how big was tough to know.

Numerous  ebay sellers had pairs in hand for sale for what was essentially retail in the days leading up to the 26th.  Moreover,  on Christmas day – that’s pre-release – Flight Club   listed a full size run of the Black Boxes for $200 flat , almost exactly the amount seasoned ebay sellers would be seeking if the shoes sold out the next day.

Fligjt club prices are always supposed to be among the highest in the aftermarket, so if it wasn’t confident about fetching more than the minimum over box price for the shoe, then the shoe was likely going to flop at retail .

All of the above were ominous signs that all not going to go according to plan with the fourth Box Series Dunk.

This was , in fact , the case.

 On December 26th,  at 10 am, the  Black Box revealed the truth about itself : it was an overpriced wide release,  the worst possible combination for any sneaker.

With this marketing masterstroke , Nike completed the ‘flop exacta ‘ with Jordan Brand’s botched release of the 1s, wasting an excellent  opportunity to generate  excitement for what should  have been two historic, home run releases for two timeless silhouettes. Wow.

Instead, as of this writing,  The Black Box took a full week to sell-through online (presumably).  If one wants to save a little cash, pairs are now available on ebay for less than retail.

Good job, Swoosh.


The Others

…..it’s as if the formula for instant relevance is for a brand to just call up the folks at A Bathing Ape, ask for an ‘Olive Camo’ mockup plus  Bape branding, decide on a (limited) release amount of product, then laugh all the way to bank on release day .

That didn’t really work out as planned for the K-Swiss Classic 66′s Bape mashup, but we all know how it worked out for the adidas NMD.

Welp, the Bapester was back again on the 23rd of December, in  conjunction  with  Mita (who ccontributed what exactly?)  and Reebok presenting  another Iverson Question to the world: The Camo.

Unlike most of the many Questions Reebok dropped throughout the fourth quarter of 2016, this pair sold out fast and has been  fetching prices around $300 (tops!)  for pairs since then, an indication that that  is about the highest  buyers value the shoe at.

This is significant,  since at $210 plus tax, this rendition  of the Question  was one of the priciest . RBK and company  took a nice chunk of that resale money from flippers,  whose profits went from what would have beem about $120 over box to about $70-$80,  given the $300 ceiling.

 They’d better be happy with that, because if history is any indication, unless the next Question is a Supreme collab or something, there will likely be little cash to be made upon it, proof that a hot release does not a desirable shoe make. In the long run, the silhouette and the  price is the key.

And Reebok’s  Club C is a perfect example of this.

A classic silhouette, the Club C returned on Christmas Eve in collaboration  with Malaysian boutique  Crossover, and is still available  at a boutiques like Sneakersnstuff,  with a few sizes left at END clothing.

Meanwhile,  the flashy Solebox colorway for the same silhouette that dropped six weeks prior to crossovers has found some support in the aftermarket,albeit in low volume.

Two releases.

Same silhouette.

Two very different legacies in the marketplace.

The Titolo x reebok  instapump First OG is available in virtually all sizes here.

The Other Others…..

The Mita x Puma Clyde “$ 1000 bill” can be found via Packer Shoes in many sizes here.

Lastly, you already know where latest two colorways of Curry  3 can be found.

Riiiiight…….Here and riiiiiiiiiiight here…..

Oh yeah

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